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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+3.35vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.55+1.22vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.03+1.88vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.26vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+2.98vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.67vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.38+2.42vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.67+1.09vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-2.93vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-1.84vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19+0.58vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.27+0.34vs Predicted
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13University of Washington-1.39-2.52vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.41-1.72vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.68-5.66vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.36-3.66vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35University of California at Santa Barbara2.0415.1%1st Place
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3.22Stanford University2.5526.8%1st Place
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4.88University of Hawaii2.0312.3%1st Place
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6.26University of California at Los Angeles1.308.0%1st Place
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7.98University of California at Berkeley0.984.2%1st Place
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9.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.3%1st Place
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9.42University of Southern California0.382.5%1st Place
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9.09Western Washington University0.673.6%1st Place
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6.07California Poly Maritime Academy1.628.9%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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11.58University of California at Davis-0.191.8%1st Place
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12.34San Diego State University-0.271.2%1st Place
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10.48University of Washington-1.391.8%1st Place
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12.28Arizona State University-0.411.2%1st Place
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9.34University of California at San Diego0.683.4%1st Place
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12.34University of California at Irvine-0.361.5%1st Place
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15.55California State University Channel Islands-1.890.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 15.1% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 26.8% | 19.4% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Clay Myers | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 17.7% | 8.7% |
| Emily Smith | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 8.4% |
| Noah Barton | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 17.9% | 8.5% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 12.3% | 62.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.