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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+3.45vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.03+3.06vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.67vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.55-0.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.98+3.23vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.67+3.40vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-0.60vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.68+1.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.45vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.25-2.58vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.90vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.19-0.17vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.53-3.34vs Predicted
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14University of Washington-1.39-3.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.26vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.41-3.37vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.89-1.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45University of California at Santa Barbara2.0415.7%1st Place
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5.06University of Hawaii2.0312.7%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Los Angeles1.307.8%1st Place
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3.32Stanford University2.5523.5%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Berkeley0.984.2%1st Place
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9.4Western Washington University0.673.3%1st Place
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6.4California Poly Maritime Academy1.628.3%1st Place
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9.91University of California at San Diego0.683.0%1st Place
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8.55University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.0%1st Place
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7.42University of Southern California1.256.0%1st Place
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10.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.9%1st Place
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11.83University of California at Davis-0.191.6%1st Place
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9.66San Diego State University0.532.9%1st Place
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10.81University of Washington-1.392.1%1st Place
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12.74University of California at Irvine-0.360.9%1st Place
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12.63Arizona State University-0.410.9%1st Place
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15.81California State University Channel Islands-1.890.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 15.7% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 23.5% | 22.9% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Clay Myers | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Diya Correa | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 5.5% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Emily Smith | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 2.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 21.1% | 11.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 19.4% | 10.1% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 13.5% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.