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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+2.34vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.03+3.10vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+1.32vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.51vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+1.26vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.67+3.45vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.25+0.57vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-1.39+2.70vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.24vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.53-0.24vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.98-2.78vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-3.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.19-1.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.68-4.03vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.41-2.49vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.19vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.36-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34Stanford University2.5525.4%1st Place
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5.1University of Hawaii2.0312.2%1st Place
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4.32University of California at Santa Barbara2.0418.1%1st Place
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6.51University of California at Los Angeles1.307.5%1st Place
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6.26California Poly Maritime Academy1.627.6%1st Place
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9.45Western Washington University0.672.5%1st Place
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7.57University of Southern California1.255.1%1st Place
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10.7University of Washington-1.392.3%1st Place
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10.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.3%1st Place
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9.76San Diego State University0.532.9%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Berkeley0.983.9%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Santa Cruz0.823.2%1st Place
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11.72University of California at Davis-0.191.8%1st Place
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9.97University of California at San Diego0.682.6%1st Place
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12.51Arizona State University-0.411.2%1st Place
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15.81California State University Channel Islands-1.890.1%1st Place
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12.75University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 25.4% | 18.8% | 17.2% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 12.2% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 18.1% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Clay Myers | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Diya Correa | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Smith | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% |
| Max Case | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| George Soliman | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 4.6% |
| Noah Barton | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 19.4% | 8.9% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 11.5% | 68.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 21.3% | 10.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.