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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+2.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+2.42vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.03+2.25vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+4.49vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+1.40vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.25+1.57vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.29vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.67+1.47vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.63vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-1.39+0.66vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-1.04vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.53-2.31vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.68-3.20vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19-2.12vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-0.41-2.55vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.17vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.36-4.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4Stanford University2.5525.3%1st Place
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4.42University of California at Santa Barbara2.0415.8%1st Place
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5.25University of Hawaii2.0311.6%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.5%1st Place
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6.4California Poly Maritime Academy1.628.3%1st Place
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7.57University of Southern California1.256.3%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Los Angeles1.306.0%1st Place
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9.47Western Washington University0.673.3%1st Place
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8.37University of California at Berkeley0.984.8%1st Place
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10.66University of Washington-1.392.5%1st Place
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9.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.2%1st Place
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9.69San Diego State University0.532.6%1st Place
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9.8University of California at San Diego0.682.9%1st Place
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11.88University of California at Davis-0.191.5%1st Place
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12.45Arizona State University-0.411.0%1st Place
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15.83California State University Channel Islands-1.890.2%1st Place
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12.63University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 25.3% | 20.3% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 15.8% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 11.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Clay Myers | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Diya Correa | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Emily Smith | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 1.8% |
| Max Case | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Noah Barton | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 0.6% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 5.3% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 20.2% | 8.6% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 11.6% | 68.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 20.1% | 10.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.