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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+1.55vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.09+4.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96+1.19vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.77+4.25vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43-1.78vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.35+1.22vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute0.65-1.97vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook-0.58-0.07vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute-0.08-2.22vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.63-1.96vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook-0.40-3.01vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.78-1.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.55Webb Institute1.7331.9%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.094.9%1st Place
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4.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.9614.3%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.772.6%1st Place
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3.22Webb Institute1.4321.6%1st Place
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7.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.352.9%1st Place
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5.03Webb Institute0.659.2%1st Place
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7.93SUNY Stony Brook-0.582.6%1st Place
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6.78Webb Institute-0.084.2%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.632.6%1st Place
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7.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.402.4%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.780.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 31.9% | 25.6% | 19.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick McCarron | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Dax Thompson | 14.3% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gus Schoenbucher | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 11.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 21.6% | 20.4% | 19.2% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick York | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 4.7% |
| Evan Spalding | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Magill | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 8.3% |
| George Hambleton | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 2.9% |
| Aiden Keister | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Kristin Hess | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 7.6% |
| Ellary Boyd | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 53.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.