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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.07+5.41vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.58+4.72vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.09+5.51vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.18+4.15vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.48+5.71vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University0.83+3.54vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68-0.87vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-2.52vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.77-3.02vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.33-1.87vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston0.96-1.90vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.90-2.42vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.95-4.03vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.66-3.79vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-8.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41Bowdoin College2.079.4%1st Place
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6.72Boston College1.588.7%1st Place
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8.51University of South Florida1.095.0%1st Place
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8.15Northeastern University1.186.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Vermont0.482.4%1st Place
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9.54Salve Regina University0.833.5%1st Place
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6.13Cornell University1.6810.3%1st Place
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5.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.0311.9%1st Place
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5.98University of Pennsylvania1.779.6%1st Place
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8.13Brown University1.336.4%1st Place
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9.1College of Charleston0.965.1%1st Place
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9.58Fordham University0.904.3%1st Place
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8.97Old Dominion University0.955.1%1st Place
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10.21Tufts University0.663.0%1st Place
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6.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.639.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Libby Redmond | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 23.2% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Emily Bornarth | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Sofia Segalla | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% |
| Kiera Oreardon | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.5% |
| Payton Canavan | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Meredith Broadus | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 17.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.