Race 11A

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Elizabeth Kaplan 11.1% 10.5% 10.9% 8.6% 10.0% 9.0% 8.6% 7.8% 6.4% 5.1% 5.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.9%
J.J. Smith 11.3% 11.7% 10.1% 9.8% 10.1% 8.9% 9.3% 7.2% 7.3% 5.1% 4.7% 2.4% 1.7% 0.5%
Lucy Brock 11.6% 10.3% 9.7% 9.8% 8.9% 9.2% 8.5% 7.7% 6.0% 6.5% 5.8% 2.9% 2.4% 0.7%
Sofia Segalla 10.1% 10.9% 10.2% 10.5% 10.7% 9.2% 8.5% 8.6% 7.0% 5.1% 3.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7%
Charlotte Costikyan 7.6% 6.3% 8.0% 7.2% 6.9% 7.4% 8.2% 7.5% 6.7% 8.2% 7.6% 7.4% 6.6% 4.5%
Lucia Loosbrock 5.4% 7.4% 5.9% 6.6% 7.2% 7.2% 7.0% 8.5% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.0% 7.7% 4.5%
Pearl Lattanzi 3.4% 5.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.5% 4.5% 5.0% 6.6% 8.4% 7.8% 9.6% 10.2% 12.6% 11.6%
Emily Bornarth 14.8% 13.9% 11.8% 10.9% 10.6% 9.2% 7.3% 6.6% 5.0% 4.6% 2.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Kiera Oreardon 5.7% 4.7% 4.8% 7.0% 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% 8.0% 7.8% 8.8% 7.6% 9.3% 9.8% 8.1%
Audrey Commerford 2.6% 2.5% 3.4% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.2% 5.4% 5.7% 7.4% 8.5% 11.3% 14.1% 23.4%
Emma Shakespeare 5.3% 5.5% 7.0% 6.2% 6.0% 7.3% 8.3% 7.5% 8.6% 8.7% 7.7% 9.3% 6.6% 5.9%
Elizabeth Gildea 4.0% 4.8% 5.4% 6.2% 6.0% 7.4% 6.5% 6.5% 7.8% 8.2% 9.6% 9.8% 9.0% 8.9%
Payton Canavan 3.5% 3.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 5.6% 5.8% 6.5% 7.8% 7.5% 10.1% 9.4% 12.4% 12.7%
Meredith Broadus 3.5% 2.9% 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% 5.3% 5.9% 7.5% 8.6% 9.2% 10.5% 13.5% 17.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.