Race 15A

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Charlotte Costikyan 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 7.9% 6.8% 7.4% 8.7% 9.4% 7.8% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8% 6.4% 4.6%
Lucy Brock 10.1% 9.1% 9.9% 10.9% 9.7% 9.2% 8.0% 7.8% 6.3% 6.8% 5.6% 4.0% 1.6% 1.0%
Emily Bornarth 14.4% 13.3% 12.2% 12.0% 10.5% 9.2% 7.8% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3%
J.J. Smith 11.3% 11.1% 11.1% 9.3% 9.2% 9.3% 8.2% 7.7% 7.0% 5.2% 4.4% 3.3% 2.0% 0.9%
Elizabeth Kaplan 11.2% 10.8% 10.6% 9.4% 9.2% 8.8% 8.2% 6.8% 7.3% 6.0% 4.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0%
Payton Canavan 4.8% 3.7% 4.7% 4.8% 5.7% 5.3% 6.5% 8.0% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 9.8% 10.7% 12.8%
Sofia Segalla 11.2% 11.7% 11.2% 9.2% 10.0% 9.2% 8.5% 7.4% 7.0% 5.1% 4.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Elizabeth Gildea 4.3% 5.7% 5.1% 5.9% 6.3% 5.3% 6.9% 6.7% 7.4% 8.8% 9.2% 10.3% 10.2% 8.0%
Lucia Loosbrock 6.8% 6.2% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 7.6% 7.0% 8.4% 8.9% 8.6% 8.1% 7.4% 6.7% 4.6%
Meredith Broadus 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% 4.3% 3.9% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9% 6.7% 8.0% 9.8% 10.5% 12.7% 16.2%
Emma Shakespeare 5.3% 5.9% 6.0% 6.3% 6.8% 7.0% 6.7% 7.3% 7.8% 8.9% 9.0% 9.2% 7.6% 6.1%
Pearl Lattanzi 4.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 5.4% 5.5% 7.0% 6.1% 7.3% 8.2% 8.7% 10.1% 11.8% 11.3%
Kiera Oreardon 4.5% 5.1% 5.5% 5.0% 5.6% 7.3% 6.7% 7.4% 7.0% 7.5% 9.8% 9.2% 11.2% 8.4%
Audrey Commerford 2.9% 2.8% 2.1% 3.6% 4.2% 3.5% 4.1% 6.0% 6.8% 7.4% 8.6% 9.7% 14.0% 24.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.