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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+10.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82+6.31vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+3.17vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.11+3.11vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.49+0.70vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.18+0.86vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.98+0.85vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.13+2.95vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.91-1.23vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.51-0.49vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.74+1.76vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.49+1.88vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.40+4.27vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.64-0.88vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.63-5.97vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-3.40vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College3.05-9.82vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.45-8.09vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.21-1.55vs Predicted
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20University of Buffalo1.00-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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6.17Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.11Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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5.7George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.86Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.85Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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10.95Old Dominion University2.130.0%1st Place
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7.77Old Dominion University2.910.1%1st Place
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9.51George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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12.76Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.88Queen's University1.490.0%1st Place
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17.27Columbia University0.400.0%1st Place
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13.12Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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9.03SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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12.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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7.18SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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9.91Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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17.45Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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15.45University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Watterson | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Max Neubelt | 7.5% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Greg Martinez | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Storck | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fields | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Joseph David | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Colin Keil | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Faurschou | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 4.2% |
| Laura Maranto | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 22.7% | 35.2% |
| Chris Myers | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 2.5% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Charles Skord | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Nick Valente | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 20.1% | 38.8% |
| Dante Iozzo | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 16.0% | 15.9% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.