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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+5.76vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.05+5.32vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.98+4.68vs Predicted
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4Drexel University1.64+9.11vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.45+4.70vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.11+1.17vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.49-1.12vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.51+1.31vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-0.86vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74+2.78vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.63-1.87vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76+0.87vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.49+0.95vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.13-2.93vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.39-8.94vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo1.00-0.69vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.91-9.21vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-6.69vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.21-1.53vs Predicted
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20Columbia University0.40-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.32SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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7.68Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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13.11Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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9.7Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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7.17Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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5.88George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.31George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.1%1st Place
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12.78Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.13SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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12.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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13.95Queen's University1.490.0%1st Place
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11.07Old Dominion University2.130.0%1st Place
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6.06Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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15.31University of Buffalo1.000.0%1st Place
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7.79Old Dominion University2.910.1%1st Place
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11.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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17.47Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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17.19Columbia University0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Storck | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Eric Siegel | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Max Neubelt | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Charles Skord | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Faurschou | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 5.2% |
| Nathan Fields | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Greg Martinez | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Iozzo | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 12.0% |
| Joseph David | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Watterson | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Werner | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Laura Maranto | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 22.3% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.