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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+3.43vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.51+5.28vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+1.88vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.45+3.53vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.48+2.35vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.40+1.80vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.20+5.56vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.67-1.47vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.71+1.17vs Predicted
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10Queen's University0.01+6.14vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.06+1.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-2.73vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.63-2.12vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo0.87-0.51vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-5.58vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-3.77vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.81+0.91vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.79-11.68vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04-3.00vs Predicted
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20Columbia University-0.31-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43Dartmouth College3.390.2%1st Place
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7.28Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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4.88Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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7.53SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.35Georgetown University2.480.1%1st Place
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7.8Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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12.56SUNY Maritime College1.200.0%1st Place
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6.53George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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10.17Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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16.14Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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12.81Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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10.88Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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13.49University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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9.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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12.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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17.91Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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6.32George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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16.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
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16.98Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 17.8% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 8.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.2% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilkinson | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Oldroyd | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Haggerty | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Hannah McNomee | 9.1% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 16.7% | 15.2% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Green | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 1.9% |
| Christine Moloney | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Sydney Mandelbaum | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 19.3% | 43.1% |
| Daniel DelBello | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mueller | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 15.8% | 20.5% | 12.0% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 22.5% | 24.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.