← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University3.25+4.13vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+10.47vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University1.71+7.62vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College1.20+8.48vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.67+2.03vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University2.40+2.13vs Predicted
-
7Queen's University0.01+9.48vs Predicted
-
8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-3.22vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College2.45-1.27vs Predicted
-
10University of Buffalo0.87+3.65vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-1.48vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University2.79-5.22vs Predicted
-
13Georgetown University2.48-4.97vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04+2.09vs Predicted
-
15Drexel University1.06-2.16vs Predicted
-
16Dartmouth College3.39-11.27vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University-0.81+0.96vs Predicted
-
18Columbia University-0.31-0.96vs Predicted
-
19Washington College1.63-8.17vs Predicted
-
20Old Dominion University2.51-12.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.13Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
-
12.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
-
10.62Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
-
12.48SUNY Maritime College1.200.0%1st Place
-
7.03George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
-
8.13Old Dominion University2.400.0%1st Place
-
16.48Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
-
4.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
-
7.73SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
-
13.65University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
-
9.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
-
6.78George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
-
8.03Georgetown University2.480.1%1st Place
-
16.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
-
12.84Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
-
4.73Dartmouth College3.390.1%1st Place
-
17.96Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
-
17.04Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
-
10.83Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
-
7.67Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alecsander Tayler | 13.4% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Haggerty | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Hannah McNomee | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 17.1% | 22.2% | 13.6% |
| Elliott Morrill | 15.2% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilkinson | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Oldroyd | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mueller | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Hunter Johnstone | 14.8% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 12.0% | 19.3% | 43.1% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 21.5% | 25.2% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Spracher | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.