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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+3.34vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.48+5.36vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.51+4.31vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.25+0.73vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.28+3.02vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.40+1.70vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.79-0.62vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+0.80vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.45-1.71vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04+6.04vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.71-0.72vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.06+0.86vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.20-0.51vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.63-3.50vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-2.82vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo0.87-2.68vs Predicted
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17Queen's University0.01-0.99vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-8.47vs Predicted
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19Columbia University-0.31-2.12vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-0.81-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.34Dartmouth College3.390.2%1st Place
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7.36Georgetown University2.480.1%1st Place
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7.31Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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4.73Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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8.02George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.7Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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6.38George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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7.29SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
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16.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
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10.28Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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12.86Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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12.49SUNY Maritime College1.200.0%1st Place
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10.5Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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12.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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13.32University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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16.01Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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9.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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16.88Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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17.99Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 17.5% | 16.6% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Oldroyd | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.7% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kennedy | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilkinson | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mueller | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 13.2% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Haggerty | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Green | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 1.7% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 19.9% | 12.4% |
| Christine Moloney | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 22.2% | 23.7% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 11.8% | 18.6% | 46.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.