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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+3.36vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.51+5.16vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.71+7.34vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.79+2.21vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25-0.23vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.63+4.68vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo0.87+6.69vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.28-0.19vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.48-1.79vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.40-2.45vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.45-3.50vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.20+0.33vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-3.69vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-4.60vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-2.83vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.06-3.39vs Predicted
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17Queen's University0.01-0.97vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04-1.96vs Predicted
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19Princeton University-0.81-1.12vs Predicted
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20Columbia University-0.31-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36Dartmouth College3.390.2%1st Place
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7.16Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.34Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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6.21George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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4.77Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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10.68Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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13.69University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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7.81George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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7.21Georgetown University2.480.1%1st Place
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7.55Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.5SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.33SUNY Maritime College1.200.0%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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9.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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12.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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12.61Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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16.03Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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16.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
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17.88Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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16.95Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 19.0% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Daniel DelBello | 9.4% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.6% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Green | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Colin Kennedy | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Oldroyd | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilkinson | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Haggerty | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Austin Neuman | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christine Moloney | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Alex Smyth | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 19.9% | 13.5% |
| Andrew Mueller | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 14.6% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 42.9% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 14.8% | 23.5% | 23.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.