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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+3.47vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.79+4.34vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.48+4.56vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.45+3.55vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25-0.17vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.51+1.43vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.40+0.90vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52-0.84vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.71+1.26vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.20+2.35vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19+1.38vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.28-3.66vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04+3.27vs Predicted
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14Queen's University0.01+2.12vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-5.90vs Predicted
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16University of Buffalo0.87-2.59vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.06-4.27vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.810.00vs Predicted
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19Columbia University-0.31-2.08vs Predicted
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20Washington College1.63-9.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47Dartmouth College3.390.2%1st Place
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6.34George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.56Georgetown University2.480.1%1st Place
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7.55SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
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4.83Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.43Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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7.9Old Dominion University2.400.0%1st Place
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7.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.1%1st Place
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10.26Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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12.35SUNY Maritime College1.200.0%1st Place
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12.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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8.34George Washington University2.280.1%1st Place
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16.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
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16.12Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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9.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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13.41University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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12.73Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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18.0Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
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16.92Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.87Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 17.7% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Oldroyd | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilkinson | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 13.7% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 5.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liana Folger | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Haggerty | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Colin Kennedy | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mueller | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 17.8% | 21.4% | 14.1% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 19.1% | 13.6% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Green | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 18.9% | 44.8% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 23.9% | 21.9% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.