← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College3.39+3.45vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University3.25+2.84vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College2.45+4.70vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University2.48+3.49vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52+2.20vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University2.28+2.28vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University2.40+0.95vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University2.79-1.81vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+0.01vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University2.51-2.65vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College1.20+1.38vs Predicted
-
12University of Buffalo0.87+1.66vs Predicted
-
13Washington College1.63-2.04vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.19-1.61vs Predicted
-
15Columbia University-0.31+1.84vs Predicted
-
16Drexel University1.06-3.30vs Predicted
-
17Queen's University0.01-0.99vs Predicted
-
18Princeton University-0.81+0.02vs Predicted
-
19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.04-2.99vs Predicted
-
20Cornell University1.71-9.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.45Dartmouth College3.390.2%1st Place
-
4.84Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
-
7.7SUNY Maritime College2.450.1%1st Place
-
7.49Georgetown University2.480.1%1st Place
-
7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.1%1st Place
-
8.28George Washington University2.280.0%1st Place
-
7.95Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
-
6.19George Washington University2.790.1%1st Place
-
9.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
-
7.35Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
-
12.38SUNY Maritime College1.200.0%1st Place
-
13.66University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
-
10.96Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
-
12.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.190.0%1st Place
-
16.84Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
-
12.7Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
-
16.01Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
-
18.02Princeton University-0.810.0%1st Place
-
16.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.040.0%1st Place
-
10.56Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 18.7% | 15.1% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.4% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Wilkinson | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Oldroyd | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liana Folger | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kennedy | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel DelBello | 9.1% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Haggerty | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Green | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 1.3% |
| Alexander Smith | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Padraig Loughlin | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 23.5% | 23.7% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 17.5% | 12.9% |
| Bennett Brainard | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 18.9% | 46.0% |
| Andrew Mueller | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 20.0% | 12.8% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.