Race 4A

peak-foliage-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Rolfe Glover 37.0% 26.7% 16.6% 10.3% 4.7% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Erica Lush 24.6% 25.3% 19.3% 13.9% 9.9% 4.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathan Alexander 11.1% 11.6% 18.0% 16.0% 15.3% 14.3% 7.4% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3%
Holly McGarr 1.9% 3.8% 3.8% 6.7% 10.4% 9.5% 15.0% 19.4% 17.6% 11.9%
Karl Ryder 8.9% 11.0% 12.8% 14.1% 15.8% 15.2% 10.9% 6.9% 3.2% 1.2%
Zachary Karakouzian 7.1% 7.3% 9.3% 13.6% 12.3% 14.4% 14.0% 12.4% 7.3% 2.3%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 4.4% 7.8% 8.6% 12.6% 14.9% 15.8% 13.9% 11.4% 8.2% 2.4%
Alison Deyett 1.4% 1.8% 3.6% 4.1% 4.3% 7.9% 11.5% 14.0% 20.4% 31.0%
Joshua Kegan 1.6% 1.7% 3.4% 3.3% 4.5% 6.5% 11.9% 13.4% 21.1% 32.6%
Sarah Hyman 2.0% 3.0% 4.6% 5.4% 7.9% 8.6% 12.2% 17.2% 20.8% 18.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.