Race 1B

peak-foliage-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Simon Bertocci 22.1% 20.9% 16.2% 16.3% 11.6% 6.6% 3.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Nicholas Pfosi 24.7% 20.2% 16.2% 14.5% 11.1% 6.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Brendan Sleight 5.8% 5.5% 8.1% 7.4% 10.8% 11.6% 14.8% 19.3% 11.9% 4.8% 0.0%
Elyse Surette-DiMuzio 6.0% 5.4% 9.7% 8.9% 11.0% 14.2% 14.1% 15.6% 11.6% 3.1% 0.4%
Timothy Forgione 8.6% 10.9% 11.5% 12.1% 12.0% 12.9% 14.1% 10.5% 5.4% 2.0% 0.0%
Emma Brinkman 5.7% 7.2% 7.9% 9.4% 9.8% 14.3% 15.2% 13.8% 11.9% 4.5% 0.3%
Madeline Webb 13.9% 14.7% 13.4% 14.3% 13.4% 12.5% 8.6% 5.2% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Amelia Connell 10.4% 11.4% 12.2% 12.5% 13.9% 12.6% 11.9% 8.8% 5.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Alison Maas 1.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 5.4% 7.2% 13.8% 29.4% 23.7% 6.8%
Emily Chase 0.6% 0.9% 1.8% 1.5% 2.2% 3.0% 4.3% 7.1% 15.5% 46.0% 17.1%
Rachel Rubin 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.5% 2.3% 4.8% 14.1% 75.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.