Race 2B

peak-foliage-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Nicholas Pfosi 21.4% 21.2% 17.0% 16.0% 11.5% 6.1% 4.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Simon Bertocci 25.0% 20.1% 17.0% 14.4% 10.5% 6.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Elyse Surette-DiMuzio 6.3% 6.2% 9.0% 8.1% 10.7% 14.3% 13.8% 17.8% 10.7% 3.1% 0.0%
Emma Brinkman 5.6% 5.5% 8.5% 8.8% 8.9% 14.1% 16.2% 15.8% 12.2% 4.0% 0.4%
Madeline Webb 12.8% 13.4% 14.0% 13.3% 13.4% 11.8% 10.8% 5.9% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Brendan Sleight 5.5% 6.6% 8.2% 8.3% 11.1% 13.2% 13.7% 15.3% 12.7% 5.1% 0.3%
Amelia Connell 10.9% 12.7% 10.3% 13.1% 14.7% 12.8% 11.1% 8.8% 4.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Timothy Forgione 9.8% 10.3% 11.7% 12.2% 13.4% 12.4% 12.4% 10.4% 5.8% 1.5% 0.1%
Alison Maas 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 3.6% 3.4% 5.2% 7.3% 13.2% 29.1% 24.3% 6.8%
Emily Chase 0.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 4.7% 6.9% 15.2% 46.0% 17.1%
Rachel Rubin 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.5% 2.2% 4.9% 14.1% 75.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.