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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University4.08+6.59vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College4.05+5.60vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+8.90vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.78+4.44vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.27+5.59vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+2.01vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.69+5.95vs Predicted
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8Yale University4.55-2.49vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.71vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.64-1.71vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.80-3.12vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.82-4.80vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.62-5.06vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.95-7.18vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-3.36vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.77-4.18vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island3.05-6.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.6Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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11.9Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.44Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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10.59University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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8.01St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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12.95Boston College2.690.0%1st Place
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5.51Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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9.29U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.29Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.88Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.2Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.94College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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7.82Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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12.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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12.82Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.47University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Haeger | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Michael Drumm | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.6% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Michael Booker | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Domenic Bove | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 19.2% |
| Graham Landy | 13.2% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Michael Grove | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Hans Henken | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| William Macdonald | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 16.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 19.2% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.