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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+8.24vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.80+6.75vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+5.57vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.78+4.49vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.77+7.50vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.09vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.05+4.62vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.69+4.89vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-1.21vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05+1.90vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.64-1.66vs Predicted
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12Tufts University4.08-4.31vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.62-3.87vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College4.05-6.81vs Predicted
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15Yale University4.55-9.50vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont3.27-5.20vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-4.30vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-10.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.75Stanford University3.800.0%1st Place
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8.57Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.49Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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12.5Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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11.62University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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12.89Boston College2.690.0%1st Place
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7.79Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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11.9Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.34Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.69Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.13College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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7.19Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.5Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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10.8University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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12.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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7.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Hans Henken | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Kevin Martland | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 18.3% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% |
| Domenic Bove | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 20.4% |
| William Macdonald | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% |
| William Haeger | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Nick Johnstone | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Graham Landy | 13.6% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Booker | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 17.1% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.