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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.03+3.09vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.04+2.06vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.25+3.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.23vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.47vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-1.11vs Predicted
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7University of Texas0.19+2.84vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.32+0.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-2.55vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.36+0.72vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-3.85vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.19-1.94vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.50+0.48vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.68-5.83vs Predicted
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15Oregon State University-1.00-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09University of Hawaii2.0317.9%1st Place
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4.06Stanford University2.0418.9%1st Place
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6.23University of Southern California1.257.3%1st Place
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5.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.4411.0%1st Place
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8.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.514.2%1st Place
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4.89California Poly Maritime Academy1.6212.6%1st Place
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9.84University of Texas0.192.4%1st Place
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8.91University of California at Los Angeles0.322.8%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Berkeley0.987.5%1st Place
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10.72University of California at Irvine-0.361.2%1st Place
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7.15University of California at Santa Cruz0.865.7%1st Place
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10.06University of California at Davis-0.191.9%1st Place
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13.48California State University Channel Islands-1.500.6%1st Place
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8.17University of California at San Diego0.685.0%1st Place
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12.27Oregon State University-1.001.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Patton | 17.9% | 15.2% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hallie Schiffman | 18.9% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diya Correa | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Justin Zmina | 12.6% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 4.3% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Will Cornell | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 7.3% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 4.4% |
| Olivia Feito | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 17.2% | 54.9% |
| Noah Barton | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Quincy Spurlock | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 26.0% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.