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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+7.09vs Predicted
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2Tufts University4.08+5.50vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.64+6.43vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+4.99vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.69+7.83vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.04vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.55-1.42vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College4.05-0.64vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.80-0.58vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.62-0.49vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.05+0.80vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University3.82-3.27vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.78-4.61vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-6.23vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.05-3.42vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont3.27-5.25vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.77-4.16vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-5.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.5Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.43Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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12.83Boston College2.690.0%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.58Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.36Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.42Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.51College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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11.8University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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8.73Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.39Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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7.77St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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11.58Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.75University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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12.84Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| William Haeger | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Domenic Bove | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 19.9% |
| Michael Grove | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| Graham Landy | 13.4% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Hans Henken | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.9% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Kevin Martland | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% |
| Michael Booker | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 20.0% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 15.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.