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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+6.66vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+3.66vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+5.56vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.05+7.49vs Predicted
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5Tufts University4.08+2.32vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+5.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.00vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.27+2.69vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.06vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.62-0.47vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77+1.83vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.95-3.79vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.80-4.64vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.64-5.13vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.78-6.50vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-3.32vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.69-3.88vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-10.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.66Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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8.56Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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11.49University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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7.32Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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11.63Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.0U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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10.69University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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9.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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9.53College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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12.83Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.21Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.36Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.87Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.5Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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12.68Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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13.12Boston College2.690.0%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Graham Landy | 11.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% |
| William Haeger | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.4% |
| Michael Grove | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Michael Booker | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.8% |
| Louis Padnos | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 18.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Hans Henken | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 16.9% |
| Domenic Bove | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 22.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.