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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.62+8.46vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+7.19vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.55+2.67vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.69+8.80vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.78+3.50vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.05+5.73vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81+5.54vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.05vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College4.05-1.68vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.82-1.34vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-2.87vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.64-2.37vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.05-1.51vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.80-5.80vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.95-7.23vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.77-3.21vs Predicted
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17Tufts University4.08-9.47vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont3.27-7.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.46College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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5.67Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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12.8Boston College2.690.0%1st Place
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8.5Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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12.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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9.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.32Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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9.63Brown University3.640.0%1st Place
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11.49Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.2Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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7.77Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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12.79Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.53Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.54University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Johnstone | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% |
| Michael Grove | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Graham Landy | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Domenic Bove | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 18.6% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 14.6% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Lucas Adams | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% |
| Hans Henken | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| William Macdonald | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 18.6% |
| William Haeger | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Michael Booker | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.