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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+7.26vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+7.24vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.80+5.68vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.55+1.51vs Predicted
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5Tufts University4.08+2.29vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.64+3.14vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+4.67vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.62+1.18vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.69+4.07vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.95-1.91vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.05-3.45vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.77+0.99vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.78-4.61vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.81-1.82vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.05-3.39vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont3.27-5.21vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University3.82-8.47vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-9.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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9.24U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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8.68Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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5.51Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.29Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.14Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.67Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.18College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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13.07Boston College2.690.0%1st Place
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8.09Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.55Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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12.99Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.39Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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12.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.810.0%1st Place
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11.61University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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8.53Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Michael Grove | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Hans Henken | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Graham Landy | 13.8% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| William Haeger | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| Domenic Bove | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 16.3% | 18.3% |
| William Macdonald | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Matthew Wefer | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 21.9% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Christopher Ford | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 14.5% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% |
| Michael Booker | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.