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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.93+8.31vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.82+7.82vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.75+7.15vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College3.14+4.14vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.74+0.80vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.92+3.14vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.18+1.00vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.91+1.09vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.97-0.10vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.81+3.83vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.56vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.09+0.89vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.06-4.51vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03-5.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38-3.61vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-7.30vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.53-6.05vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island3.02-9.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.930.0%1st Place
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9.82Brown University2.820.0%1st Place
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10.15Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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8.14Eckerd College3.140.1%1st Place
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5.8Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.14Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.0Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.09Tufts University2.910.1%1st Place
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8.9Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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13.83Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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9.44U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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12.89Roger Williams University2.090.0%1st Place
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8.49Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.1%1st Place
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11.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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8.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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10.95Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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8.55University of Rhode Island3.020.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arielle DeLisser | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Sky Adams | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| Liz Dubovik | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Melany Johnson | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Marlena Fauer | 13.5% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Maeve White | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 29.7% |
| Marissa Lihan | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% |
| Rachel Perry | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Devon Rohde | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| Chanel Miller | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.