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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+2.65vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.92+1.91vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.99+3.00vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.64-1.37vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.90-1.08vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.75+0.49vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.40+2.60vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis1.68-1.40vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.19+1.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.19+0.11vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.02-0.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.01-3.55vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.71-3.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65Stanford University3.070.2%1st Place
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3.91Stanford University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.0University of California at Santa Cruz1.990.0%1st Place
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2.63Stanford University3.640.3%1st Place
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3.92Stanford University2.900.2%1st Place
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6.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.750.0%1st Place
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9.6California Poly Maritime Academy0.400.0%1st Place
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6.6University of California at Davis1.680.1%1st Place
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10.16California State University Monterey Bay0.190.0%1st Place
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10.11University of California at Berkeley0.190.0%1st Place
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10.38California State University Monterey Bay0.020.0%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Berkeley1.010.0%1st Place
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9.1California State University Monterey Bay0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Riihiluoma | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Burroughs | 14.3% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Cowley | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Peter Stemler | 31.5% | 23.8% | 18.4% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 16.0% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Maher | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| James Davis | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| Ryan Lee | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Maryan Gonnerman | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 18.0% | 23.0% |
| Kenton Stutz | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 20.1% | 21.8% |
| Trevor Fournier | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 19.1% | 24.0% |
| Lauren Amery | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 5.1% |
| Ashley Eberhard | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.