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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.62+7.07vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida1.45+6.77vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.64+4.91vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.33+5.42vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.71+2.60vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College-0.05+8.91vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University0.73+4.76vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.45+0.72vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-2.59vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.61-1.95vs Predicted
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11Olin College of Engineering0.22+3.24vs Predicted
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12University of South Carolina0.63+0.66vs Predicted
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13Harvard University1.55-3.83vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America1.31-5.04vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-5.25vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.72-7.75vs Predicted
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17Bates College0.02-2.21vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.44-4.86vs Predicted
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19University of Vermont1.05-9.03vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.07Fordham University1.627.8%1st Place
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8.77University of South Florida1.456.7%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Naval Academy1.647.8%1st Place
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9.42Brown University1.335.5%1st Place
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7.6Northeastern University1.718.5%1st Place
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14.91Dartmouth College-0.051.5%1st Place
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11.76Fairfield University0.733.3%1st Place
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8.72Connecticut College1.455.9%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.0310.5%1st Place
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8.05University of Rhode Island1.617.7%1st Place
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14.24Olin College of Engineering0.221.9%1st Place
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12.66University of South Carolina0.632.9%1st Place
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9.17Harvard University1.554.9%1st Place
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8.96Catholic University of America1.315.5%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.605.2%1st Place
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8.25Brown University1.726.0%1st Place
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14.79Bates College0.021.4%1st Place
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13.14University of Wisconsin0.442.4%1st Place
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9.97University of Vermont1.054.2%1st Place
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17.46Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
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Patrick Dolan | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Zachariah Schemel | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Caden Scheiblauer | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Charlotte Costikyan | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
Will Priebe | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Martha Rand | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
Wilson Kaznoski | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
Harris Padegs | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Emily Bornarth | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Miles Williams | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
James Jagielski | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 9.3% |
Ian Street | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 4.5% |
Eric Hansen | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
John McKenna | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
Emma Snead | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
Jed Bell | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Jack Valentino | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 13.4% |
George Lockwood | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 5.3% |
Calvin Lamosse | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
Gunnar Pierson | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 46.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.