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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.45+7.34vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+7.48vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.61+4.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.64+3.71vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.05+4.86vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.72+2.10vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-0.85vs Predicted
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8University of South Carolina0.63+4.51vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62-1.16vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.45-1.38vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.33-1.50vs Predicted
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12Olin College of Engineering0.22+2.16vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University0.73-1.27vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.36-0.47vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University0.73-3.01vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.83+1.43vs Predicted
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17Bates College0.02-2.43vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.44-5.17vs Predicted
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19Catholic University of America1.31-10.37vs Predicted
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20Harvard University1.55-10.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.34Connecticut College1.456.9%1st Place
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9.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.604.7%1st Place
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7.94University of Rhode Island1.618.2%1st Place
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7.71U. S. Naval Academy1.648.6%1st Place
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9.86University of Vermont1.055.3%1st Place
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8.1Brown University1.727.2%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.0312.3%1st Place
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12.51University of South Carolina0.632.6%1st Place
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7.84Fordham University1.626.3%1st Place
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8.62University of South Florida1.455.9%1st Place
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9.5Brown University1.335.5%1st Place
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14.16Olin College of Engineering0.221.4%1st Place
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11.73Fairfield University0.733.3%1st Place
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13.53Dartmouth College0.361.8%1st Place
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11.99Northeastern University0.732.6%1st Place
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17.43Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.830.9%1st Place
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14.57Bates College0.021.5%1st Place
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12.83University of Wisconsin0.442.6%1st Place
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8.63Catholic University of America1.316.2%1st Place
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9.1Harvard University1.556.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harris Padegs | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Emma Snead | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
Miles Williams | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Caden Scheiblauer | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Calvin Lamosse | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
Jed Bell | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Emily Bornarth | 12.3% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Ian Street | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% |
Patrick Dolan | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Zachariah Schemel | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Charlotte Costikyan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
James Jagielski | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
Wilson Kaznoski | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
Connor Vogel | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 7.7% |
Liam Lawless | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
Gunnar Pierson | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 47.9% |
Jack Valentino | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
George Lockwood | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
John McKenna | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
Eric Hansen | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.