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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.47vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+10.36vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.42+4.94vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80+2.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.95+0.78vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22-1.10vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University0.65+6.48vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.55-0.30vs Predicted
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9Harvard University0.70+2.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81+0.54vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.39+1.19vs Predicted
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12University of South Carolina1.18-3.05vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.60-1.37vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.18-0.82vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University0.42-2.68vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.05-2.22vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.05-2.56vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-0.82vs Predicted
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19University of Vermont0.87-8.54vs Predicted
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20Bates College0.67-9.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.1%1st Place
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12.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.0%1st Place
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7.94Fordham University1.425.0%1st Place
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6.38University of Rhode Island1.809.2%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy1.9511.8%1st Place
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4.9Brown University2.2213.8%1st Place
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13.48Northeastern University0.651.8%1st Place
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7.7Brown University1.557.1%1st Place
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11.45Harvard University0.702.7%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.814.0%1st Place
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12.19University of Wisconsin0.391.7%1st Place
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8.95University of South Carolina1.185.9%1st Place
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11.63Connecticut College0.603.2%1st Place
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13.18Dartmouth College0.181.8%1st Place
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12.32Fairfield University0.422.2%1st Place
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13.78University of South Florida0.051.6%1st Place
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14.44Olin College of Engineering-0.051.3%1st Place
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17.18Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.5%1st Place
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10.46University of Vermont0.873.9%1st Place
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10.86Bates College0.673.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.1% | 17.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 3.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 13.8% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Brock | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 6.5% |
| Emily Mueller | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Celia Houston | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Tye Rubin | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| David Manley | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.2% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 7.2% |
| Colin Snow | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 12.7% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 47.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.