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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.90vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.53vs Predicted
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3University of South Carolina1.18+5.85vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.42+3.97vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.22+0.06vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+6.43vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.80-0.48vs Predicted
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8Fairfield University0.42+4.03vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.55-1.34vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.65+3.32vs Predicted
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11Olin College of Engineering-0.05+3.66vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.67-1.31vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.39-0.81vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-3.53vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-4.49vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College0.18-3.05vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.60-5.43vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.05-4.15vs Predicted
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19Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-1.58vs Predicted
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20Harvard University0.70-8.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy1.9511.2%1st Place
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4.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.5%1st Place
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8.85University of South Carolina1.185.8%1st Place
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7.97Fordham University1.426.5%1st Place
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5.06Brown University2.2213.2%1st Place
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12.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.8%1st Place
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6.52University of Rhode Island1.808.9%1st Place
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12.03Fairfield University0.422.5%1st Place
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7.66Brown University1.557.7%1st Place
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13.32Northeastern University0.652.4%1st Place
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14.66Olin College of Engineering-0.051.2%1st Place
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10.69Bates College0.673.4%1st Place
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12.19University of Wisconsin0.392.1%1st Place
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10.47University of Vermont0.873.7%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.813.3%1st Place
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12.95Dartmouth College0.181.8%1st Place
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11.57Connecticut College0.602.6%1st Place
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13.85University of South Florida0.051.2%1st Place
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17.42Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.3%1st Place
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11.41Harvard University0.702.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.5% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Manley | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 13.2% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% |
| Emily Mueller | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carter Brock | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 5.3% |
| Colin Snow | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 3.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Celia Houston | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 7.3% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 49.5% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.