← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.95+5.00vs Predicted
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2Harvard University0.70+9.25vs Predicted
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3University of South Carolina1.18+5.85vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80+2.44vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.22-0.16vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81+4.35vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.60vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.42-0.05vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.65+4.32vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin0.39+2.21vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.87-0.36vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University0.42+0.16vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-0.81vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.18-0.62vs Predicted
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15Bates College0.67-4.20vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.60-4.36vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.55-9.20vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.05-4.15vs Predicted
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19Olin College of Engineering-0.05-4.40vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-2.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0U. S. Naval Academy1.959.5%1st Place
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11.25Harvard University0.702.9%1st Place
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8.85University of South Carolina1.184.5%1st Place
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6.44University of Rhode Island1.809.5%1st Place
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4.84Brown University2.2215.9%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.814.2%1st Place
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4.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.2%1st Place
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7.95Fordham University1.425.9%1st Place
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13.32Northeastern University0.651.5%1st Place
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12.21University of Wisconsin0.392.3%1st Place
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10.64University of Vermont0.873.1%1st Place
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12.16Fairfield University0.422.7%1st Place
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12.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.4%1st Place
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13.38Dartmouth College0.181.4%1st Place
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10.8Bates College0.673.3%1st Place
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11.64Connecticut College0.602.7%1st Place
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7.8Brown University1.556.1%1st Place
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13.85University of South Florida0.051.2%1st Place
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14.6Olin College of Engineering-0.051.8%1st Place
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17.33Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 9.5% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| David Manley | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 15.9% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Celia Houston | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.2% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carter Brock | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 6.6% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.4% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 8.6% |
| Colin Snow | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 13.3% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 47.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.