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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.50vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.95+3.93vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.42+5.02vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.55+3.61vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University0.42+7.11vs Predicted
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6University of South Carolina1.18+3.10vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.87+3.42vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22-3.03vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+3.09vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.65+3.43vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.80-4.56vs Predicted
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12Harvard University0.70-0.57vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.60-1.29vs Predicted
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14Olin College of Engineering-0.05+0.57vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.39-2.71vs Predicted
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16Bates College0.67-5.32vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College0.18-3.83vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.05-4.24vs Predicted
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19Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-1.66vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-9.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3216.8%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy1.9511.4%1st Place
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8.02Fordham University1.426.0%1st Place
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7.61Brown University1.556.9%1st Place
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12.11Fairfield University0.422.8%1st Place
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9.1University of South Carolina1.185.3%1st Place
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10.42University of Vermont0.873.6%1st Place
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4.97Brown University2.2214.5%1st Place
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12.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.5%1st Place
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13.43Northeastern University0.651.2%1st Place
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6.44University of Rhode Island1.809.8%1st Place
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11.43Harvard University0.703.3%1st Place
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11.71Connecticut College0.602.1%1st Place
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14.57Olin College of Engineering-0.051.5%1st Place
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12.29University of Wisconsin0.392.1%1st Place
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10.68Bates College0.672.5%1st Place
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13.17Dartmouth College0.182.1%1st Place
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13.76University of South Florida0.051.7%1st Place
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17.34Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.4%1st Place
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10.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.813.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.8% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| David Manley | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Mason Stang | 14.5% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| Carter Brock | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 6.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Colin Snow | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| Ted Lutton | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 6.2% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 7.7% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 50.2% |
| Celia Houston | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.