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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.95+5.07vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.55+5.77vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.44vs Predicted
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4Harvard University0.70+7.14vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University0.42+7.42vs Predicted
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6University of South Carolina1.18+2.99vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81+3.47vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.80-1.60vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.22-4.06vs Predicted
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10Bates College0.67+0.97vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.42-3.13vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.60-0.28vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering-0.05+1.88vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.39-2.00vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.05-1.37vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11+1.36vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College0.18-3.75vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-6.11vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University0.65-5.63vs Predicted
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20University of Vermont0.87-9.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.07U. S. Naval Academy1.9510.2%1st Place
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7.77Brown University1.555.9%1st Place
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4.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.9%1st Place
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11.14Harvard University0.703.1%1st Place
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12.42Fairfield University0.422.5%1st Place
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8.99University of South Carolina1.185.1%1st Place
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10.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.813.4%1st Place
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6.4University of Rhode Island1.809.9%1st Place
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4.94Brown University2.2214.5%1st Place
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10.97Bates College0.672.8%1st Place
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7.87Fordham University1.426.3%1st Place
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11.72Connecticut College0.602.8%1st Place
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14.88Olin College of Engineering-0.051.1%1st Place
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12.0University of Wisconsin0.393.1%1st Place
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13.63University of South Florida0.051.5%1st Place
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17.36Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.4%1st Place
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13.25Dartmouth College0.182.2%1st Place
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11.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.2%1st Place
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13.37Northeastern University0.651.6%1st Place
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10.42University of Vermont0.873.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 10.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.9% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.9% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| David Manley | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Celia Houston | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 14.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Lutton | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Colin Snow | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 13.6% |
| Tye Rubin | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 8.8% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 48.6% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.1% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Carter Brock | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 6.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.