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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.92vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.68vs Predicted
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3Harvard University0.70+8.25vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.22+0.87vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.55+2.73vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.65+7.20vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.42+0.91vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College0.18+4.93vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.87+1.54vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida0.05+3.80vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.80-4.59vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+0.39vs Predicted
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13Bates College0.67-2.15vs Predicted
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14University of South Carolina1.18-5.07vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.39-2.82vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-0.05-1.07vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University0.42-4.90vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-7.63vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.60-7.41vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy1.959.6%1st Place
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4.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3215.9%1st Place
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11.25Harvard University0.703.1%1st Place
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4.87Brown University2.2215.4%1st Place
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7.73Brown University1.557.3%1st Place
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13.2Northeastern University0.652.1%1st Place
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7.91Fordham University1.426.2%1st Place
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12.93Dartmouth College0.182.2%1st Place
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10.54University of Vermont0.873.2%1st Place
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13.8University of South Florida0.051.6%1st Place
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6.41University of Rhode Island1.8010.3%1st Place
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12.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.2%1st Place
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10.85Bates College0.673.4%1st Place
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8.93University of South Carolina1.184.5%1st Place
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12.18University of Wisconsin0.392.9%1st Place
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14.93Olin College of Engineering-0.050.9%1st Place
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12.1Fairfield University0.422.4%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.813.5%1st Place
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11.59Connecticut College0.602.8%1st Place
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17.42Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 15.9% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Mason Stang | 15.4% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carter Brock | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 7.9% |
| Declan Botwinick | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| David Manley | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Colin Snow | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 13.2% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Celia Houston | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 13.3% | 48.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.