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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.39vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.95+3.87vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.55+4.63vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+8.10vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.80+1.57vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.87+4.23vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University0.65+6.29vs Predicted
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8University of South Carolina1.18+1.01vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.22-3.97vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin0.39+2.17vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-1.35vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.67-1.20vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.42-5.27vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College-0.27+0.93vs Predicted
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15Harvard University0.70-3.53vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.42-3.88vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.05-2.45vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.05-4.32vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.60-7.47vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3216.2%1st Place
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5.87U. S. Naval Academy1.9511.6%1st Place
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7.63Brown University1.557.0%1st Place
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12.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.493.1%1st Place
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6.57University of Rhode Island1.808.6%1st Place
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10.23University of Vermont0.874.0%1st Place
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13.29Northeastern University0.651.3%1st Place
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9.01University of South Carolina1.185.1%1st Place
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5.03Brown University2.2214.6%1st Place
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12.17University of Wisconsin0.392.2%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.0%1st Place
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10.8Bates College0.673.5%1st Place
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7.73Fordham University1.426.3%1st Place
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14.93Dartmouth College-0.271.3%1st Place
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11.47Harvard University0.702.3%1st Place
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12.12Fairfield University0.422.8%1st Place
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14.55Olin College of Engineering-0.050.9%1st Place
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13.68University of South Florida0.051.3%1st Place
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11.53Connecticut College0.602.5%1st Place
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17.26Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.2% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Brown | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Carter Brock | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.7% |
| David Manley | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Mason Stang | 14.6% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 13.9% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Colin Snow | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.6% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 7.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 46.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.