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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.52vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.55+5.57vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.95+2.86vs Predicted
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4University of South Carolina1.18+4.90vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University0.42+7.12vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22-0.91vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+5.14vs Predicted
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8Olin College of Engineering-0.05+6.74vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.87+1.16vs Predicted
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10Harvard University0.70+1.27vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College-0.27+3.81vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.67-1.10vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.65+0.17vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.42-6.19vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida0.05-1.32vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.60-4.62vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-7.38vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.39-5.67vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island1.80-12.44vs Predicted
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20Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3218.3%1st Place
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7.57Brown University1.556.8%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy1.9510.7%1st Place
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8.9University of South Carolina1.184.4%1st Place
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12.12Fairfield University0.422.5%1st Place
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5.09Brown University2.2213.6%1st Place
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12.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.9%1st Place
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14.74Olin College of Engineering-0.051.6%1st Place
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10.16University of Vermont0.873.5%1st Place
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11.27Harvard University0.702.5%1st Place
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14.81Dartmouth College-0.271.1%1st Place
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10.9Bates College0.672.2%1st Place
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13.17Northeastern University0.651.9%1st Place
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7.81Fordham University1.427.0%1st Place
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13.68University of South Florida0.051.8%1st Place
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11.38Connecticut College0.602.9%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.0%1st Place
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12.33University of Wisconsin0.392.3%1st Place
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6.56University of Rhode Island1.808.8%1st Place
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17.34Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 18.3% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 10.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Manley | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| Mason Stang | 13.6% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Colin Snow | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 11.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 13.7% |
| Ted Lutton | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Carter Brock | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 4.5% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 47.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.