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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.48vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.10vs Predicted
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3Bates College0.67+7.62vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.55+3.55vs Predicted
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5University of South Carolina1.18+3.78vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.65+7.32vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.42+0.67vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22-2.83vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.42+3.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-0.34vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.87-0.62vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+0.28vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.80-6.49vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.60-2.41vs Predicted
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15Harvard University0.70-3.85vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-0.05-1.37vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.05-3.28vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11-0.73vs Predicted
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19Dartmouth College-0.27-4.04vs Predicted
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20University of Wisconsin0.39-7.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3217.1%1st Place
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6.1U. S. Naval Academy1.9510.5%1st Place
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10.62Bates College0.673.2%1st Place
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7.55Brown University1.557.2%1st Place
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8.78University of South Carolina1.185.1%1st Place
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13.32Northeastern University0.651.5%1st Place
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7.67Fordham University1.427.0%1st Place
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5.17Brown University2.2213.2%1st Place
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12.07Fairfield University0.422.6%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.0%1st Place
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10.38University of Vermont0.873.7%1st Place
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12.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.1%1st Place
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6.51University of Rhode Island1.809.8%1st Place
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11.59Connecticut College0.603.0%1st Place
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11.15Harvard University0.703.0%1st Place
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14.63Olin College of Engineering-0.051.1%1st Place
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13.72University of South Florida0.051.8%1st Place
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17.27Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.5%1st Place
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14.96Dartmouth College-0.271.0%1st Place
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12.09University of Wisconsin0.392.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.1% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Emily Mueller | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| David Manley | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Carter Brock | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.3% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 13.2% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Colin Snow | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 11.8% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 7.6% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 45.3% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 14.7% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.