← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
5.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fairfield University0.42+11.22vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University0.70+9.35vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy1.95+3.00vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+8.20vs Predicted
-
5Connecticut College0.60+6.47vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.51vs Predicted
-
7University of Wisconsin0.39+5.31vs Predicted
-
8Brown University2.22-2.98vs Predicted
-
9University of South Florida0.05+4.70vs Predicted
-
10University of South Carolina1.18-1.13vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College-0.27+3.74vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island1.80-5.55vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University0.65+0.11vs Predicted
-
14Bates College0.67-3.22vs Predicted
-
15Olin College of Engineering-0.05-0.55vs Predicted
-
16Fordham University1.42-8.21vs Predicted
-
17Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.11+0.25vs Predicted
-
18University of Vermont0.87-7.71vs Predicted
-
19Brown University1.55-11.32vs Predicted
-
20U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-10.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
12.22Fairfield University0.422.7%1st Place
-
11.35Harvard University0.702.4%1st Place
-
6.0U. S. Naval Academy1.9510.4%1st Place
-
12.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.4%1st Place
-
11.47Connecticut College0.602.8%1st Place
-
4.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3216.4%1st Place
-
12.31University of Wisconsin0.392.1%1st Place
-
5.02Brown University2.2215.2%1st Place
-
13.7University of South Florida0.051.6%1st Place
-
8.87University of South Carolina1.184.2%1st Place
-
14.74Dartmouth College-0.271.1%1st Place
-
6.45University of Rhode Island1.809.1%1st Place
-
13.11Northeastern University0.652.1%1st Place
-
10.78Bates College0.673.6%1st Place
-
14.45Olin College of Engineering-0.051.6%1st Place
-
7.79Fordham University1.427.0%1st Place
-
17.25Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.110.5%1st Place
-
10.29University of Vermont0.874.4%1st Place
-
7.68Brown University1.556.5%1st Place
-
9.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Cooper | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.4% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tye Rubin | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Mason Stang | 15.2% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Brustoski | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 7.3% |
| David Manley | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Carter Brock | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 5.8% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Colin Snow | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 12.1% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason Elliott | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 45.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.