Race 1A

nickerson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Rolander 16.2% 13.2% 13.8% 12.8% 10.3% 10.8% 7.3% 6.1% 4.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2%
Alison Knoles 4.3% 4.5% 5.7% 5.2% 7.6% 5.9% 8.2% 7.6% 10.5% 11.7% 12.6% 9.7% 6.5%
Jonathan Pope 5.5% 6.4% 7.0% 8.1% 9.7% 7.4% 9.3% 10.2% 10.6% 10.9% 6.7% 5.8% 2.4%
Charles Lalumiere 18.0% 15.4% 14.4% 13.1% 10.3% 9.2% 6.3% 6.0% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
William Crary 9.6% 9.5% 9.7% 9.6% 9.3% 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 7.1% 7.0% 5.1% 3.3% 0.6%
Cooper Nefsky 5.3% 5.2% 5.6% 6.1% 6.2% 9.2% 9.2% 8.1% 11.3% 10.0% 9.6% 9.4% 4.8%
Camden Tougas 4.4% 3.6% 4.5% 4.7% 5.8% 5.2% 6.6% 8.4% 10.6% 9.3% 13.9% 14.7% 8.3%
Matthew Lyons 7.5% 8.8% 8.7% 7.8% 8.6% 10.5% 10.1% 10.7% 10.1% 7.3% 6.0% 3.0% 0.9%
Harry Koeppel 13.7% 16.2% 13.1% 13.2% 9.4% 10.3% 8.1% 6.1% 3.9% 4.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Juan Perdomo 9.8% 9.5% 10.0% 9.4% 11.1% 9.2% 8.3% 9.2% 7.0% 7.2% 5.6% 2.9% 0.8%
Luis Marban 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.3% 8.3% 11.2% 18.0% 36.2%
Samuel Campbell 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.5% 2.3% 3.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.8% 7.4% 12.0% 20.4% 31.4%
Peter Christensen 2.8% 4.6% 4.1% 5.2% 6.8% 6.4% 8.4% 7.6% 9.6% 11.5% 14.3% 10.9% 7.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.