Race 4A

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Lalumiere 17.3% 16.8% 14.4% 12.5% 9.9% 9.3% 8.1% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1%
John Rolander 15.2% 14.3% 13.6% 13.4% 11.7% 8.3% 7.2% 7.2% 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Luis Marban 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 3.5% 4.2% 5.5% 7.4% 11.9% 19.7% 38.0%
William Crary 8.3% 9.1% 8.8% 10.0% 9.7% 10.0% 9.1% 9.6% 7.4% 8.9% 5.6% 2.3% 1.2%
Matthew Lyons 8.2% 7.9% 9.3% 9.0% 9.6% 9.9% 9.1% 9.7% 8.9% 6.1% 7.3% 3.9% 1.1%
Peter Christensen 5.3% 3.7% 4.4% 5.5% 7.5% 5.4% 7.4% 8.1% 11.8% 9.6% 13.0% 11.0% 7.3%
Alison Knoles 5.4% 4.6% 6.3% 5.9% 5.2% 6.9% 7.0% 8.6% 9.2% 14.2% 10.3% 11.0% 5.4%
Cooper Nefsky 4.9% 5.3% 4.6% 6.2% 7.7% 7.5% 10.1% 8.7% 11.0% 11.5% 9.3% 8.6% 4.6%
Camden Tougas 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% 4.4% 5.2% 4.6% 6.7% 8.9% 10.4% 10.4% 13.8% 13.5% 10.9%
Samuel Campbell 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 4.6% 4.3% 7.1% 7.7% 13.4% 20.1% 28.0%
Jonathan Pope 6.1% 7.8% 8.4% 7.4% 8.6% 9.4% 10.3% 9.6% 9.7% 8.3% 7.6% 4.6% 2.2%
Harry Koeppel 14.6% 14.3% 12.5% 13.2% 10.4% 10.7% 8.2% 6.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0%
Juan Perdomo 8.1% 9.1% 9.6% 8.8% 9.6% 12.6% 8.7% 9.5% 7.8% 8.4% 3.9% 3.1% 0.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.