Race 1B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Maxwell Simmons 11.0% 11.6% 10.3% 11.5% 9.2% 10.7% 8.4% 9.2% 5.9% 6.4% 2.8% 1.9% 1.1%
Sam Gates 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 5.3% 4.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.2% 7.5% 10.4% 13.7% 13.6% 14.4%
Matthew Mollerus 8.2% 8.1% 10.3% 10.0% 9.8% 9.9% 8.1% 10.0% 8.4% 5.9% 5.8% 3.4% 2.1%
Scott Barbano (Tufts) 18.8% 19.3% 15.8% 10.1% 10.6% 8.1% 6.8% 4.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Camille Matile 6.1% 5.6% 5.6% 7.4% 7.2% 8.0% 6.0% 8.1% 9.4% 10.9% 10.9% 9.3% 5.5%
Chester Jacobs 5.6% 6.3% 6.7% 7.3% 8.3% 7.2% 8.9% 9.1% 7.9% 10.3% 8.7% 9.4% 4.3%
Robert Floyd 14.6% 13.7% 12.1% 11.9% 11.4% 8.0% 7.4% 6.8% 5.6% 4.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.1%
Forrest Short 6.5% 8.4% 7.2% 6.7% 7.7% 7.6% 10.5% 9.1% 9.1% 9.0% 8.3% 6.9% 3.0%
Kendal Richardson 8.9% 7.7% 10.6% 9.3% 9.7% 9.6% 9.4% 8.1% 8.5% 6.4% 6.0% 3.6% 2.2%
Solomon Tarlin 4.7% 2.6% 3.5% 4.3% 5.1% 6.5% 6.4% 7.1% 7.8% 9.8% 11.4% 14.9% 15.9%
Charlie Bess 3.7% 3.6% 4.7% 5.6% 5.3% 6.5% 7.2% 7.5% 9.5% 9.2% 12.1% 12.4% 12.7%
Patrick Isherwood 6.5% 7.3% 7.4% 7.9% 8.2% 8.0% 9.4% 9.2% 10.4% 8.4% 7.4% 5.5% 4.4%
Joshua Morrison 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 3.2% 4.9% 4.9% 6.9% 7.4% 10.3% 16.9% 33.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.