Race 2B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Maxwell Simmons 11.2% 11.5% 11.2% 10.3% 10.4% 8.2% 9.7% 8.3% 6.4% 6.3% 3.3% 2.4% 0.8%
Scott Barbano (Tufts) 20.2% 16.0% 16.1% 11.9% 11.9% 7.0% 6.9% 4.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Matthew Mollerus 7.9% 8.5% 10.5% 9.5% 9.2% 10.4% 8.2% 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 4.8% 4.2% 1.8%
Robert Floyd 13.2% 13.6% 11.0% 14.0% 9.7% 9.1% 8.5% 7.8% 5.1% 4.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4%
Sam Gates 3.8% 3.9% 5.3% 4.2% 5.0% 7.1% 6.2% 6.2% 8.1% 9.3% 13.2% 14.3% 13.4%
Forrest Short 7.3% 6.6% 7.0% 8.8% 8.0% 8.2% 9.3% 9.1% 8.6% 8.3% 8.6% 6.8% 3.4%
Chester Jacobs 7.1% 6.5% 6.1% 6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 7.1% 8.4% 10.7% 9.6% 8.8% 9.8% 4.2%
Charlie Bess 3.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.1% 6.9% 10.6% 8.9% 12.0% 13.2% 14.6%
Camille Matile 5.3% 5.3% 4.3% 8.7% 5.5% 6.5% 8.1% 8.4% 8.8% 13.0% 8.2% 9.8% 8.1%
Solomon Tarlin 3.7% 4.3% 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 10.1% 12.3% 14.0% 15.6%
Patrick Isherwood 7.2% 7.6% 9.1% 7.6% 9.0% 9.5% 9.7% 9.5% 7.5% 8.4% 7.8% 4.0% 3.1%
Joshua Morrison 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.9% 4.8% 7.4% 6.2% 11.1% 16.0% 33.1%
Kendal Richardson 8.0% 9.1% 9.4% 8.2% 10.0% 10.4% 8.8% 8.9% 8.3% 7.4% 6.2% 3.8% 1.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.