Race 3B

nickerson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Maxwell Simmons 12.3% 11.6% 11.8% 11.5% 9.1% 7.8% 9.6% 8.3% 7.1% 5.3% 2.8% 2.0% 0.8%
Charlie Bess 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 5.3% 5.0% 5.7% 5.9% 8.1% 7.7% 11.8% 10.1% 14.8% 13.9%
Robert Floyd 14.1% 13.6% 12.6% 11.0% 12.0% 10.8% 6.8% 6.7% 5.1% 3.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6%
Sam Gates 3.3% 3.6% 4.8% 5.0% 4.7% 6.5% 7.5% 6.5% 6.9% 9.6% 13.8% 14.1% 13.7%
Matthew Mollerus 9.9% 10.6% 11.1% 8.5% 9.6% 9.3% 8.2% 7.7% 9.1% 6.3% 4.8% 3.8% 1.1%
Chester Jacobs 7.4% 5.8% 6.3% 6.6% 8.9% 8.3% 7.8% 9.5% 8.2% 9.0% 9.5% 7.9% 4.8%
Forrest Short 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 8.2% 8.3% 7.9% 8.7% 10.3% 8.5% 7.9% 6.4% 2.9%
Sandy Beatty (Tufts) 14.1% 13.2% 11.5% 11.0% 11.0% 9.6% 9.5% 6.9% 3.9% 4.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Kendal Richardson 9.7% 9.8% 10.2% 7.7% 10.1% 9.7% 9.0% 8.6% 6.9% 6.0% 6.2% 4.0% 2.1%
Joshua Morrison 2.6% 2.7% 2.4% 3.4% 3.0% 3.7% 4.6% 5.0% 7.1% 8.5% 9.8% 14.3% 32.9%
Patrick Isherwood 6.9% 8.7% 9.3% 9.0% 8.1% 8.9% 9.1% 9.9% 7.6% 8.6% 6.2% 5.0% 2.7%
Camille Matile 5.1% 5.5% 5.1% 7.5% 6.0% 6.7% 7.2% 7.4% 10.2% 10.8% 11.5% 9.4% 7.6%
Solomon Tarlin 2.9% 3.4% 3.2% 5.8% 4.3% 4.7% 6.9% 6.7% 9.9% 7.7% 12.3% 15.6% 16.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.