Race 4B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sam Gates 3.6% 3.8% 2.9% 5.9% 5.2% 7.0% 6.0% 7.2% 7.9% 10.6% 11.5% 15.2% 13.2%
Sandy Beatty (Tufts) 12.9% 12.5% 12.7% 11.4% 12.2% 8.9% 7.8% 7.0% 5.3% 3.9% 2.7% 2.3% 0.4%
Robert Floyd 14.4% 14.9% 11.1% 10.9% 10.7% 10.8% 7.9% 6.7% 4.8% 4.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Kendal Richardson 8.7% 9.8% 11.5% 9.2% 8.5% 10.2% 7.8% 8.6% 7.8% 7.9% 4.9% 3.8% 1.3%
Matthew Mollerus 10.8% 10.1% 10.7% 8.9% 9.7% 7.5% 9.4% 9.1% 6.9% 6.7% 5.7% 3.7% 0.8%
Forrest Short 7.5% 7.8% 7.2% 8.8% 8.1% 8.7% 8.0% 9.0% 9.0% 7.8% 7.9% 6.4% 3.8%
Camille Matile 7.2% 4.5% 7.2% 6.3% 5.9% 6.0% 7.1% 9.3% 10.0% 8.7% 11.7% 9.5% 6.6%
Maxwell Simmons 12.3% 12.7% 10.8% 8.9% 11.2% 10.9% 9.9% 6.6% 6.3% 4.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.8%
Patrick Isherwood 7.3% 7.6% 7.5% 8.8% 7.6% 8.2% 10.1% 8.8% 8.3% 7.6% 8.1% 5.9% 4.2%
Solomon Tarlin 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% 4.0% 5.2% 5.2% 5.6% 7.0% 8.7% 11.2% 10.2% 13.3% 17.3%
Charlie Bess 3.5% 3.7% 5.9% 6.3% 4.9% 5.4% 7.3% 7.5% 9.6% 10.0% 11.8% 12.9% 11.2%
Joshua Morrison 1.9% 2.1% 2.6% 3.1% 3.0% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7% 5.7% 7.2% 9.8% 16.3% 34.3%
Chester Jacobs 5.7% 6.3% 6.0% 7.5% 7.8% 6.7% 8.3% 8.5% 9.7% 10.0% 9.4% 8.4% 5.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.