Race 5B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sandy Beatty (Tufts) 13.3% 14.5% 11.0% 10.1% 12.1% 8.7% 7.8% 7.8% 6.1% 4.2% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5%
Matthew Mollerus 9.8% 8.7% 9.6% 10.1% 11.7% 8.3% 7.3% 7.8% 8.2% 7.5% 5.2% 4.3% 1.5%
Forrest Short 5.6% 6.9% 9.4% 6.9% 7.2% 8.3% 10.7% 8.7% 10.2% 8.7% 7.4% 7.1% 2.9%
Sam Gates 3.3% 4.1% 3.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.8% 7.6% 8.0% 5.6% 9.6% 13.3% 13.9% 14.4%
Maxwell Simmons 12.9% 12.7% 12.5% 9.7% 9.8% 8.4% 10.3% 7.1% 5.8% 4.5% 3.5% 1.9% 0.9%
Kendal Richardson 11.0% 8.7% 10.1% 11.0% 7.7% 10.7% 8.5% 7.4% 6.7% 7.6% 5.0% 3.8% 1.8%
Camille Matile 6.7% 5.6% 7.0% 5.5% 7.1% 7.4% 7.4% 8.7% 9.0% 8.4% 11.7% 10.3% 5.2%
Robert Floyd 15.1% 13.5% 11.5% 12.5% 10.7% 11.5% 7.6% 6.3% 4.0% 3.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Solomon Tarlin 3.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 4.2% 6.3% 5.0% 7.5% 9.2% 11.1% 11.1% 13.7% 16.3%
Joshua Morrison 2.5% 2.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 4.2% 5.6% 7.9% 7.2% 10.0% 15.2% 32.0%
Patrick Isherwood 6.9% 8.2% 9.4% 9.8% 7.7% 8.9% 8.8% 9.7% 8.9% 7.2% 6.4% 5.2% 2.9%
Chester Jacobs 6.0% 6.1% 5.3% 7.9% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 9.2% 9.0% 10.9% 10.2% 8.2% 5.9%
Charlie Bess 3.0% 4.0% 3.7% 4.4% 6.1% 5.2% 7.8% 6.2% 9.4% 9.9% 11.2% 13.6% 15.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.