Race 6B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Robert Floyd 14.5% 14.1% 12.0% 13.4% 9.3% 8.9% 8.4% 6.5% 5.2% 3.5% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3%
Matthew Mollerus 9.3% 8.8% 9.7% 10.1% 11.2% 7.5% 9.9% 7.3% 6.9% 8.1% 5.9% 3.9% 1.4%
Maxwell Simmons 11.8% 11.4% 11.0% 11.1% 11.4% 9.8% 8.7% 6.5% 6.7% 5.3% 3.3% 2.5% 0.5%
Sam Gates 3.2% 4.1% 4.5% 5.3% 4.5% 7.2% 5.5% 6.9% 7.6% 10.0% 12.2% 12.5% 16.5%
Sandy Beatty (Tufts) 13.6% 15.0% 13.0% 10.6% 9.7% 7.6% 9.6% 7.1% 5.5% 3.4% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Forrest Short 8.1% 7.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 9.3% 8.6% 9.0% 8.9% 8.5% 7.4% 5.9% 3.8%
Camille Matile 6.8% 5.3% 6.6% 6.4% 7.4% 5.8% 7.6% 9.5% 8.8% 9.9% 10.3% 8.6% 7.0%
Charlie Bess 4.1% 5.2% 4.0% 3.8% 5.7% 5.9% 5.6% 8.1% 10.1% 9.7% 11.4% 12.9% 13.5%
Chester Jacobs 6.9% 4.9% 6.8% 7.4% 7.1% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8% 8.5% 9.2% 8.7% 9.2% 6.1%
Solomon Tarlin 4.7% 3.8% 4.3% 3.9% 5.6% 5.9% 5.2% 7.6% 7.9% 9.0% 9.8% 16.0% 16.3%
Joshua Morrison 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 5.8% 6.2% 8.7% 12.6% 14.9% 28.6%
Kendal Richardson 8.6% 9.9% 10.0% 9.5% 7.4% 10.1% 8.7% 8.8% 8.0% 7.5% 5.1% 3.8% 2.6%
Patrick Isherwood 6.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.6% 8.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.1% 9.7% 7.2% 8.4% 6.5% 2.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.