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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.47+4.80vs Predicted
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2Rice University0.91+5.46vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University0.87+4.21vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida-0.31+10.01vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.70-0.12vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.17+0.09vs Predicted
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7Texas A&M University1.30-1.01vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.04+2.94vs Predicted
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9University of Central Florida-0.20+4.03vs Predicted
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10Clemson University0.73-2.70vs Predicted
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11University of Texas0.41-0.39vs Predicted
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12The Citadel-0.27+0.52vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina-0.92+1.51vs Predicted
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14Florida Institute of Technology-0.88+0.29vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-4.22vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.41-1.48vs Predicted
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17William and Mary-1.40-0.60vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University-0.44-5.43vs Predicted
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19Hope College-0.31-6.28vs Predicted
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20Christopher Newport University0.60-11.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8San Diego State University1.4712.2%1st Place
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7.46Rice University0.917.0%1st Place
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7.21North Carolina State University0.878.0%1st Place
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14.01University of South Florida-0.311.0%1st Place
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4.88Jacksonville University1.7014.9%1st Place
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6.09Eckerd College1.179.7%1st Place
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5.99Texas A&M University1.3010.7%1st Place
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10.94University of Virginia0.043.1%1st Place
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13.03University of Central Florida-0.201.7%1st Place
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7.3Clemson University0.737.1%1st Place
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10.61University of Texas0.413.9%1st Place
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12.52The Citadel-0.272.2%1st Place
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14.51University of North Carolina-0.921.4%1st Place
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14.29Florida Institute of Technology-0.881.5%1st Place
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10.78Washington College0.193.2%1st Place
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14.52Arizona State University-0.411.2%1st Place
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16.4William and Mary-1.400.9%1st Place
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12.57Michigan State University-0.442.5%1st Place
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12.72Hope College-0.312.1%1st Place
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8.37Christopher Newport University0.605.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 12.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ricky Miller | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Brelage | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Floerchinger | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 14.9% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mather | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Claire Miller | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Charlie Eckert | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| Nilah Miller | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Bradlee Anderson | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| Emma Gumny | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.6% |
| William Mullray | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 11.8% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 12.4% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 31.4% |
| Ryan Dodge | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Caroline Henry | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Aston Atherton | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.