Race 8B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Matthew Mollerus 10.4% 8.2% 10.6% 10.0% 8.1% 8.9% 8.6% 10.5% 7.6% 5.8% 5.9% 3.7% 1.7%
Camille Matile 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 7.3% 6.2% 6.1% 9.5% 8.8% 7.9% 11.0% 10.4% 10.3% 5.8%
Sam Gates 2.8% 3.9% 3.8% 5.9% 5.3% 6.1% 5.6% 6.7% 9.6% 9.6% 12.7% 15.5% 12.5%
Maxwell Simmons 12.0% 12.0% 12.6% 9.4% 11.1% 9.8% 8.2% 6.4% 7.7% 4.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7%
Sandy Beatty (Tufts) 13.9% 14.5% 13.0% 10.4% 10.2% 8.7% 7.6% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Robert Floyd 14.8% 14.9% 12.2% 12.0% 10.1% 9.9% 7.5% 5.3% 5.2% 3.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Chester Jacobs 7.4% 6.9% 6.1% 7.0% 6.9% 8.3% 8.3% 9.5% 8.0% 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 4.8%
Patrick Isherwood 6.9% 8.2% 7.6% 9.0% 8.1% 9.8% 8.0% 9.8% 8.4% 9.2% 7.1% 5.2% 2.7%
Forrest Short 7.2% 6.2% 7.2% 7.6% 8.7% 8.7% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 8.9% 6.8% 6.8% 4.5%
Solomon Tarlin 4.4% 3.2% 4.4% 3.9% 5.6% 6.2% 5.5% 7.3% 9.3% 9.4% 11.1% 13.0% 16.7%
Kendal Richardson 9.5% 10.9% 10.4% 10.1% 10.1% 8.8% 9.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.6% 3.8% 2.4% 1.9%
Charlie Bess 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.4% 6.8% 6.4% 8.2% 10.0% 12.3% 14.4% 14.7%
Joshua Morrison 1.9% 1.6% 2.8% 2.2% 3.9% 3.3% 5.3% 5.4% 6.2% 7.1% 11.5% 15.6% 33.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.